The Selection Pressure of Counterterrorism Policy

Sustained counterterrorism pressure functions as natural selection: a large footprint does not merely attrit an adversary, it breeds a more competent one.

Since the AUMF, transnational counterterrorism campaigns have ebbed and flowed across administrations — more or fewer targeted strikes, groups listed and delisted as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, resources reallocated with each National Defense Strategy. The paper models these administrations as a large predator exerting varying selection pressure on its prey.